Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 60 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 60 · JNU → KTN

departs 7:35 AM AKDT · arrives 8:35 AM AKDT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at KTN more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KTN?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from JNU are usually not late

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip0.55 in

KTN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 60 · JNU → KTN

Odds over time

How late will it get to KTN?