Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 61 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 61 · JNU → YAK

departs 9:35 AM AKDT · arrives 10:30 AM AKDT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at YAK more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YAK?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.9 in of rain forecast at YAK that day

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ Other factors

↓ 9am departures from JNU are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into YAK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility4.66667 mi Precip0.64 in

YAK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 61 · JNU → YAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to YAK?