Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 639SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 639 · SEA → TPA
departs 9:18 PM PT · arrives 5:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%chance · ±1 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.