AS 672 · RDU → SEA

departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at RDU that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RDU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 672 · RDU → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?