Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 754 LANDED 11:25 AM PT, ~25 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

AS 754 · PDX → SEA

took off 10:59 AM PT · landed 11:25 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 754 · PDX → SEA

Odds over time