Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 833 LANDED 9:53 PM HT, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AS 833 · SFO → HNL

took off 7:57 PM PT · landed 9:53 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 7pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 833 · SFO → HNL

Odds over time