AS 843 · KOA → SMF

took off 2:18 PM HT · landed 9:49 PM PT (scheduled 1:47 PM HT → 10:02 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ KOA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 843 · KOA → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?