Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9827 LANDED 12:33 PM PT, ~26 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AS 9827 · ANC → SEA

took off 8:22 AM AKT · landed 12:33 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ ANC is busy at that time

↓ 7am departures from ANC are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9827 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time