Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 1186 · JFK → ROC
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Fri 10/2 44%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.