Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 281 · JFK → IAH
departs 2:29 PM ET · arrives 5:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Fri 10/2 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 40%
Mon 10/5 37%
Tue 10/6 34%
Wed 10/7 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±7 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.