Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 626
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 626 · TPA → JFK
departs 9:15 AM ET · arrives 12:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
9am departures from TPA are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.