Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
B6 846 · MCO → ISP
departs 5:58 PM ET · arrives 8:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 24%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ISP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ISP?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ISP
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
ISP (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.