Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 8786 LANDED 8:46 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

B6 8786 · HOU → SFB

took off 5:51 PM CT · landed 8:46 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SFB more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SFB that day

↑ 5pm departures from HOU are often late

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFB (destination) Gusts34 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.84 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 8786 · HOU → SFB

Odds over time