Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
DL 1198 · SLC → SNA
departs 8:00 AM MT · arrives 8:54 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
Saturdays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC
↓
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.