Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1227
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1227 · ATL → TPA
departs 8:38 AM ET · arrives 10:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are usually not late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.40 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.