Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1235
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1235 · ATL → LEX
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30 15%
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
5pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.38 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 433 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.