Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1281 · ATL → EYW
departs 8:55 AM ET · arrives 10:50 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
↓
Arrivals into EYW at that hour are usually not late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.17 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.