Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1281 · EYW → ATL
departs 11:48 AM ET · arrives 1:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
11am departures from EYW are usually not late
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.06 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.51 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.