Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1387
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1387 · JFK → MSY
departs 3:31 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.81 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.