Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1391
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1391 · DTW → PHL
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,467 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.