Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
DL 1407 · RDU → DTW
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 7:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 13%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↑
5pm departures from RDU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.17 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.