Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1424 · ATL → MSY
departs 9:20 AM ET · arrives 9:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.43 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.81 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.