Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1444
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1444 · ATL → IAD
departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 12:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Other factors
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.40 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.