Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1472 · ATL → EYW
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 2:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/1 16%
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↑
Other factors
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.10 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.