Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1481 · SDF → ATL
departs 1:16 PM ET · arrives 2:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/1 7%
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,967 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.