Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1500
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1500 · ATL → MOB
departs 11:45 AM ET · arrives 11:57 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1 7%
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MOB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MOB?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MOB that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↑
Other factors
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into MOB at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.10 in
MOB (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.