DL 1511 · MCO → LGA

took off 5:29 PM ET · landed 7:34 PM ET (scheduled 1:47 PM ET → 4:23 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1511 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?