Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1638 · JFK → PBI
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PBI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PBI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PBI?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PBI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
PBI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.