Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1812 LANDED 4:12 PM ET, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

DL 1812 · AVL → LGA

took off 2:48 PM ET · landed 4:12 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AVL that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from AVL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1812 · AVL → LGA

Odds over time