Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1829 LANDED 5:53 PM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

DL 1829 · SDQ → JFK

took off · landed 5:53 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDQ

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day

Weather at each end

SDQ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1829 · SDQ → JFK

Odds over time