DL 2093 · TPA → JFK

took off 6:54 PM ET · landed 9:16 PM ET (scheduled 6:50 PM ET → 9:41 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2093 · TPA → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?