Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2240
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2240 · LGA → ORD
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 1:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Thu 10/1 31%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.