Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2266
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2266 · ATL → BUF
departs 2:10 PM ET · arrives 4:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/1 14%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↑
Other factors
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.10 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.