Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2405
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2405 · LGA → MSY
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 5:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.93 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.