Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
DL 2475 · TPA → JFK
departs 7:05 AM ET · arrives 9:51 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.