Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2497
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2497 · SAT → DTW
departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 12:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1 14%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
8am departures from SAT are usually not late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.24 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.