Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2498 · ATL → EWR
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 8:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.