Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2511 · ATL → ROC
departs 9:23 AM ET · arrives 11:31 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.