Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2533 · SEA → SAN
departs 9:45 AM PT · arrives 12:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.