Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2534 · SAT → LAX
departs 7:19 AM CT · arrives 8:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1 17%
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.24 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.