Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2564
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2564 · LGA → MCO
departs 11:49 AM ET · arrives 2:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/1 16%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.