Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2741 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

DL 2741 · MCI → DTW

departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ DL's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2741 · MCI → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?