Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
DL 2852 · DTW → TPA
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 9:36 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.