Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2856 · DTW → ATL
departs 10:25 AM ET · arrives 12:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1 18%
Fri 10/2 14%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Other factors
↑
10am departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.