Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2862 · OKC → ATL
departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 7:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.