Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2934
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2934 · DTW → JFK
departs 4:18 PM ET · arrives 6:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,267 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.