Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2949
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 2949 · SEA → LAS
departs 8:34 PM PT · arrives 11:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.