Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 3015 · TYS → ATL
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:01 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Thu 10/1 4%
Fri 10/2 4%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 4%
Tue 10/6 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at TYS that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TYS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.18 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.