Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3195
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 3195 · ATL → SDF
departs 1:46 PM ET · arrives 3:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/1 12%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at ATL that day
↑
Other factors
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.10 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,367 ft Visibility 5.66667 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.