Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 433 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

DL 433 · ATL → LGA

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ 3pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

LGA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling8,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 433 · ATL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?